Tuesday, December 16, 2008

A.L. East Division Predictions

Over the last 2 seasons, the Blizzard and Nutcases/Fonda Yews have become very familiar with one another. In both seasons, the Blizzard edged out the Fonda Yews to win the division, but only by a mere 4 games combined. On the other hand the Bulls and Blast have struggled to win games with both teams losing 100 games last season. One season later, where do these teams stand? Can Baltimore and Durham close the gap?


Season 10: 1st Place (93-69)
Season 11 Prediction: 1st Place

The Skinny:
Change is abundant for the Blizzard. The most notable change is their move from the cold, wintry air of Burlington to the ummm....cold, wintry air of Buffalo. Then again, Dunn Tire Park is much more hitter-friendly than Mustain Stadium ever was. However, while most of the Blizzard headed southwest to Buffalo, several players failed to make the trip and headed elsewhere including two-fifths of the starting rotation. Replacing Paul Ishii and Angel Cruz in the starting rotation are former Salem starter Walter Lewis and Willie Jacobs whom the Blizzard acquired last season when he was released by Baltimore. The bullpen also features some new, yet familiar faces as Mack Greer and Louie Reyes return to the big leagues after spending time in AAA ball waiting for Hideo Gonzales (signed by Washington) and Ronnie Brooks (signed by Trenton) to move on.
While the core of the Blizzard offense returns, they've added former Tacoma 2B Andy Battle who won the starting job over Pascual Seneca and veteran 3B/OF Edwin Simon who will split time with Jay Carmona.
If the Blizzard hope to win the division for the 7th straight season, the new starters must step up and help 2-time Cy Young winner Vitas Henley and the offense must take advantage of the friendlier confines in Buffalo.



Season 10: 2nd Place (90-72)
Season 11 Prediction: 2nd Place

The Skinny:
Atlanta made very few moves in the offseason, however, the major league roster boasts only 1 player over the age of 28 so that's understandable! That's also pretty remarkable. The one player over the age of 28 was 36-year old free agent signing Raul Martin. Martin joins a pretty good rotation led by 15-game winner Nash Phillips and Damaso Lopez. Lopez struggled a bit last season, but he's a much better pitcher than he showed and he hopes to prove it this season. The Fonda Yews also feature one of the best, if not the best, closers in the game in Peter Pong. Pong was 40-42 in save opportunities last season and hasn't blown more than 5 saves in any of his last 3 seasons.
Atlanta's offense has a lot of young talent and if all these kids are hitting at the same time, the Fonda Yews will be tough to beat. It appears as if 22-year old Sean Mailman will finally get a full season to show he belongs, but he'll get plenty of offensive help from the likes of Tony Mendoza, Pedro Gonzales, Tom King and others. This could definitely be the season where Atlanta overtakes the Blizzard, but until they actually do, I'm sticking with Buffalo to win it again.



Season 10: T-3rd Place (62-100)
Season 11 Prediction: 3rd Place

The Skinny:
I think both the Bulls and the Blast will win more games than they did last season, however, I still believe the Bulls have the upper hand. The Bulls made several moves, of every kind, in the offseason, but the most important thing is Lawrence Brown is still around. Brown just swatted home run number 300 and he and rookie Omar Siqueiros will probably hit close to 100 between the two of them. Throw in all-time home run king Bart Kirby and I think I'm getting whiplash just talking about them. The offense will also look to another rookie, Yorrick Benard. Benard is a great table setter and should steal a lot of bases if the other guys aren't moving him around the bases via the long ball.
The big free agent signing for Durham this offseason was getting starting pitcher Milt Leiter. While Leiter is not a top of the rotation starter, he'll pitch his innings from the middle of the rotation behind Johan McInerney and rookie sensation Humberto Aguilera. Aguilera reminds me of a young Vitas Henley. Once some of these young guys start to reach their potential, Durham will be a force to reckon with in the A.L. East.



Season 10: T-3rd Place (62-100)
Season 11 Prediction: 4th Place

The Skinny:
Baltimore Blast owner, reps, has been very quiet and methodical over the last few seasons as he tries to build this franchise back up. The beat goes on in Baltimore as there wasn't too much activity in the offseason. Because this team hasn't had much success lately, one of the best players in Mantle World has probably gone unnoticed by most, but I'm here to get his name out there. Blast 1B Bruce Payne has quietly put up back-to-back seasons of 50+ home runs, 110+ RBI and 100+ runs scored with a slugging percentage over .600 and an OPS over 1.000 in those seasons. He also hasn't missed a game in those seasons and won his first Silver Slugger award this past season. Payne will get some help this season from a rookie I like quite a bit, outfielder Scott Hall. At just 21-years old, Hall has the potential to be a 40/40 guy for the Blast.
Baltimore has a pair of solid starting pitchers in Mike Burnett and Dave Fisher, but they might benefit from shopping Brook Grey at the trade deadline to get someone younger who may be able to step into the rotation in a season or two. Overall, I like the direction Baltimore is headed. In the past, I've noted the success Baltimore has had in getting serviceable players via the Rule 5 Draft so it's only a matter of time before Baltimore fields a team that can compete for the division.

N.L. South Division Predictions


Last season, the Long Horns surprised a lot of people and not only ran away with the N.L. South division title, but they amassed the best record in the National League, while surpassing their Season 9 win total by 21 games. This season, drichter's club is on everyone's radar and there's no one less impressed with the Long Horns rise last season than the welsh5's Florida Lockdown.


Season 10: 3rd Place (83-79)
Season 11 Prediction: 1st Place

The Skinny:
3-time World Series winners don't rebuild, they simply reload. And that's exactly what Florida has done. Their most notable move was the trade with Charlotte which brought them Bronson Gibson and Zoltan Bernero (now with the Polish Hammers via the Rule 5 draft). Gibson is due to have another breakout season, similar to when he arrived in St. Louis in Season 6. Florida also brought in a pair of sluggers with the free agent signing of Carlos Gonzalez and the trade for Grady MacFarlane from Oklahoma City.
After trading away a couple valuable starters in Mark Parker (Charlotte) and James Bradshaw (Oklahoma City), the Lockdown signed Ricky Banks who will replace one of the aforementioned starters. However, Banks will probably fit in toward the back end of the rotation as they still have 19-game winner Ned McInerney and Lucas Milliard at the front end. While the pitching isn't terrific, there's enough pop in the lineup (see Elmer Coleman and Cam Lincoln) to return this team to the top of the standings in the N.L. South.



Season 10: 1st Place (99-63)
Season 11 Prediction: 2nd Place

The Skinny:
Having won 99 games last season, Texas didn't need to do much in the offseason. Most pieces are already in place. One area they looked to solidify was the bullpen and they did so by signing former Portland closer, Nick Smith. Smith tallied 109 saves over the last 3 seasons and should find himself in the closer role here in Texas as well. The rotation remains in tact from a season ago, however, Kirt Daniels and Luis Henriquez may find themselves battling for that final spot early on in the season. The best of the bunch would be Gregory Williams, a 19-game winner from a season ago.
Offensively, the Long Horns have a trio of hitters who could surpass the 100 RBI mark this season. Both Carlos Aguilera and Ted Hunter reached the mark last season and I would add Domingo Gonzales to the list provided he gets enough at bats. The catalyst of the Long Horns lineup is Gary Blake though. Blake had a monster Season 10 compiling 215 hits, 111 runs scored, 93 RBI and batting .369 while winning the Silver Slugger award for center fielders.



Season 10: 2nd Place (85-77)
Season 11: 3rd Place

The Skinny:
Like Texas, Louisville liked the team they had in place and didn't do too much in the offseason to upset the balance. Also like Texas, their biggest offseason move was acquiring a closer. In Louisville's case, they brought in one of the all-time greats, Joseph Yoshii. Yoshii ranks 2nd all-time with 255 career saves, the majority of which he earned for the Seminoles. The Beaners also signed rookie starting pitcher Pedro Camacho by way of Oklahoma City. Camacho will have an opportunity to learn from some of the best in 144-game winner J.R. Barkley and veteran Theo Roa.
The offense is led by shortstop Brian Tamura (41 HR, 120 RBI), but he should get a nice boost this season from 22-year old rookie 1B Roland Fitzgerald. Fitzgerald put up moster numbers in the minors, but he's prone to getting injured so his ability to stay healthy could affect where this team finishes.


Oklahoma City
Oklahoma City Power Failure (NL)
coneheads
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Season 10: 4th Place (75-87)
Season 11 Prediction: 4th Place

The Skinny:
Oklahoma City was involved in a few trades in the offseason which brought them a a pair of solid starters and a pretty good young outfielder. As noted above, the Power Failure acquired James Bradshaw and slugger Howard Christiansen from the Lockdown in a deal that instantly brings some credibility to the pitching staff. With Bradshaw, Mateo Estrada and Sammy Piedra (acquired in trade from Washington), this staff is shaping up to be a good one. They should still look for one more starter and they need some bullpen help, but these trades certainly have the staff headed in the right direction.
Offensively, Chili Chen is still here although he could be a great bargaining chip around the all-star break. Chen's got a manageable contract and has really played well for the Power Failure over the last few seasons. The most dynamic player on the team may be Kip Sosa. The 25-year old Sosa is a 5-tool player who has yet to reach his potential. With the 24-year old Howard Christiansen aboard, these two could be a formidable duo for the next several seasons.

Monday, December 15, 2008

A.L. South Division Predictions

The A.L. South is chock full of great starting pitching and I believe that's what's going to decide who wins the division this season. Charlotte's still building, Jackson has some great, young arms and Richmond and Jacksonville have the veteran hurlers looking for one last (or first) title run. Richmond has owned the division over the last several seasons, but that could change this season. Let's take a look at the teams.

Jacksonville
Jacksonville Seminoles (AL)
mbooker
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Season 10: 2nd Place (86-76)
Season 11 Prediction: 1st Place

The Skinny:
For 6 straight seasons, the Seminoles have been the division bridesmaid. For 5 of those seasons, they've finished behind Richmond. I think this season is when Jacksonville finally gets over the hump. Hmmm...sound familiar? That's because I thought the same thing last season, but this pitching staff is simply too good to not get a division title at some point. mbooker did a smart thing in the offseason and that was extending the contracts of starting pitchers Vance Collier and Gene Hayes and accepting the option on Ahmed Sanford's contract (a no-brainer). Add rookie Craig McMillan to that rotation and it'll be very tough for teams to score runs on the Seminoles.
Offensively, I still give the edge to Richmond, but it's only a small advantage. The Seminoles are led by a couple young guns in 25-year old 2B Cesar Urbina and 24-year old 3B Alex Maradona. Add in the veteran leadership of Luther Taylor, Hector Castro and Luther Howard and this team may finally have what it takes to be the bride.



Season 10: 1st Place (90-72)
Season 11 Prediction: 2nd Place

The Skinny:
Richmond and owner dgtrache spent the offseason doing quite a bit of free agent shopping, however, they quickly discovered that some of the best players on the market wore Generals uniforms last season. The Generals initially let Albert Lecuona and Odalis Lopez file for free agency, but were then able to re-sign them at a lesser price which was a smart move by the club. They also hit up Atlanta for a pair of free agents including former General Claude Buckley and Charlie Joyner. While these guys will all play major roles in the Generals offense, the future is 22-year old Marino Tejera. In his rookie campaign last season, Tejera scored and drove in over 100 runs while hitting 27 home runs and stealing 54 bases. Those are some serious numbers for a rookie.
Richmond boasts a veteran pitching staff and it became older with the addition of J.P. McEnroe, but these guys still have what it takes to win games. 36-year old Clay Runyan returns to the staff after winning 19 games last season and 31-year old Gerald Krause is signed through Season 13. All-time saves leader, Andy Scott (311 career saves) is also back again to shut the door in the 9th. I expect these guys to be in the A.L. South race to the last game of the season. They simply know how to win games.


Jackson
Jackson Bootleggers (AL)
rwright
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Season 10: 3rd Place (78-84)
Season 11 Prediction: 3rd Place

The Skinny:
Much like the Generals, the Bootleggers spent a lot of time and a little money on free agents in the offseason. The offense will benefit from the signings of Ringo Anderson, Charles Mulder and Tom Daly, but these guys aren't the long term answer for Jackson. They're merely filling in the gaps while the young talent such as Alving Cruz and Ted Gonzales matures in the Bootleggers minor league system. And it's not just bats that the Bootleggers are grooming. They've got a couple young arms in Sam Atchley and reliever Stan Salazar that should be future stars if given the time to develop.
As for this season, the Bootleggers will probably sit tight in 3rd place. The talent is better than what Charlotte has, but it's just not enough to compete with the Seminoles and Generals. Look for Carmine Byrd, Max Guerrero and Magglio Cedeno to win some games for this team though.


Charlotte
Charlotte Moose Hunters (AL)
jmil397
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Season 10: 4th Place (63-99)
Season 11 Prediction: 4th Place

The Skinny:
Patience is a waiting game. In his 3rd season as owner, jmil's probably getting more used to losing than he'd like, but he should also be enjoying the high draft picks and watching his young team grow. The Moose Hunters hit a franchise low for wins last season with 63, but in order to turn around a team, sometimes you have to get worse before you can get better. This season, I think they get better.
With a young nucleus of players, it could be a fun season in Charlotte. They've got all-or-nothing sluggers in Johnny Olson and Justin Ohka and some other really solid talent in home grown product Warren Gibson and Jose Blanco.
The talent of the pitching staff is still miles away from the offensive talent, but a couple trades at the right time could put the Moose Hunters on the map. Mark Parker is probably the best arm on the staff, although Louis Hennessey should win some games as well. It's going to be tricky, but if jmil can figure out how to matchup his talent, this team could be pretty good in a few seasons.

Saturday, December 13, 2008

N.L North Division Predictions


The N.L. North was the most fiercely contested division last year as only 8 games separated 1st place from 4th place. However, while it was fiercely contested within the division, only one team finished with a .500 or better record and that team was the Minnesota Mighty Men. And Minnesota is where we start our N.L. North predictions.



Season 10: 1st Place (82-80)
Season 11 Prediction: 1st Place

The Skinny:
While they finished with 82 wins last season, expectations are much higher this year as some of Minnesota's young talent starts to come of age. The "Mighties" boast a sweet crop of youngsters that are ready to make a name for themselves. 3B Bill Hewson is probably the best of the bunch, but he'll have a lot of support from the likes of short stop Miguel Mateo, 1B/DH J.J. Taylor and OF Willis Bonilla. 1B/DH Hector Maduro looks like he's arrived from AAA ball for the entire season as well. That's a very potent lineup and not one of those players is over 25 years old! Expect a lot of runs to be scored by this lineup.
While the lineup is excellent, the pitching staff needs work. Mitch Tanner is a decent inning-eater to have at the top of the rotation and B.C. Tatis has great stuff, but the rest of the rotation needs to improve. Of course, if they can survive long enough to hand the ball to Don Yoshii, they'll be just fine.


Sioux Falls
Sioux Falls Canaries (NL)
yoker70
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Season 10: 3rd Place (78-84)
Season 11 Prediction: 2nd Place

The Skinny:
There was no one more active in free agent signings than yoker70 and his Sioux Falls Canaries. Did the offseason hard work pay off? I think it did, but I still had a hard time sliding them into a 2nd place prediction. The biggest name heading to Sioux Falls is definitely starting pitcher Paul Ishii. Ishii's a very nice addition to any rotation simply because he'll guarantee you about 220-240 innings pitched every season, but he's not a dominant pitcher (101-101 career record) by any means. A couple of seasons ago, Steve Floyd would've been a huge name in free agency, but he's a little past his prime. Floyd can still pitch though and that is why Sioux Falls is bringing him in as well. The Canaries didn't have to look far for the next addition to their pitching staff. They nabbed Junior Valentin away from division rival, Minnesota. However, even will all the new additions, the best pitcher on the staff is probably 23-year old Charlie Nelson (9-9, 4.09).
While the Canaries spent some money on the pitching staff, they also took out the checkbook for the offense as well. Scott Rose comes over from Detroit and will see time at DH and 1B and Brad Moyer makes his way to Sioux Falls via Wichita. With all these changes, I still believe the Canaries will need Omar Rivas to put up better numbers than he did last season in order to compete with Minnesota.


Montreal
Montreal Mother Canuckers (NL)
tmfran
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Season 10: 2nd Place (79-83)
Season 11 Prediction: 3rd Place

The Skinny:
The biggest change for the this club is the move from Rochester to Montreal (I'm a big fan of the team name, by the way), but there were also a lot of free agent signings here as well. I just don't think they made out as well as yoker70 (aka Mr. Moneybags). The free agent signing who should make the biggest impact is outfielder Valerio Palmeiro who arrives from San Diego/Vancouver. Aside from the free agent additions, the best move here was certainly the trade for Pedro Cruz. Cruz was 15-8 last season splitting time between AA and AAA ball, but he'll make his rookie campaign in the majors this season.
While I think the team will take a step back this season, they've still got some talent in the likes of Bobby Ray Palmer and Fernando Sanchez. And even if they stumble a little this season, all eyes will be on James Barnes and his quest to become the first player in Mantle World to reach 2,000 hits. He currently stands at 1,813 hits and tallied over 201 last season so there's a good chance he could reach that monumental number this season.



Season 10: 4th Place (74-88)
Season 11 Prediction: 4th Place

The Skinny:
One wonders how long Sherm Roberts will remain in Trenton. The 2-time MVP is a great bargaining chip and could probably bring in some excellent prospects if Trenton decides to look toward the future. It would be a tough decision to move him because this division was up for grabs last year, but if Minnesota and the others pull away early, let's just say the trade rumors started here! Can I add Cam DeRosa to those rumors as well? These 2 guys have been the foundation of Titans offense for so long, but the pitching staff has never been up to snuff and it doesn't look like that has changed this season either. It's not for a lack of effort on the part of KGS77 because he's always looking to trade for pitching. There's just not much that's been made available.
As for the current rotation, Cristian Torres is a decent starter and Shannon Ojeda will get some people out, but there's a major arms need here in Trenton. In fact, the best arms are in the bullpen in Al Vargas and newcomer Ronnie Brooks. Add those guys to Enrique Lee and the bullpen is pretty solid.

A.L North Division Predictions




Season 10: 1st Place (106-56) - World Series Champion
Season 11 Prediction: 1st Place

The Skinny:
I could just cut and paste what I wrote about this team at the start of last season (minus the Bucky McDonald mention) because I really have the same thoughts on the Bad Seeds. They have excellent bats led by Season 10 MVP Sammy Shumpert and Ismael Estrella and they have veteran pitching in guys like Dustan Connelly and Rudy Brown (who combined to go 37-14 last season, by the way). And if those guys aren't veteran enough at 37 and 33 years old, they brought in 41-year old Vinny Clement to help out in the bullpen. There is some youth in Detroit though and we think it's only a matter of time before Wesley Downing becomes a regular in the starting rotation. While I give the edge to Detroit here, I see Wichita giving them a run for their money as they did last season.




Season 10: 2nd Place (97-65)
Season 11 Prediction: 2nd Place

The Skinny:
There's a buzz in Wichita this season and with good reason. Red Sherman has arrived. He didn't spend a lot of time in the minors and he didn't need to - this guy can flat out rake it. Sherman may not play every day, but he'll be in the lineup more often than not and the Wranglers are expecting him to provide some needed pop to the lineup. Wait, there's more. Slugger and slick-fielding center fielder Johnnie Adams will be joining Sherman in the majors as well this season. Adams has a sweet glove and can run the bases a bit, but he's also accustomed to jogging the bases (34 HR's in AAA last season). On the pitching front, the Wranglers signed former Blizzard starting pitcher Angel Cruz. I'm not sure if Cruz will be in the rotation or coming out of the 'pen, but either way, he's a solid addition to a great staff led by 4-time all-star and former Cy Young winner Brent Meche. If Apollo Tam and Tony Galvez can produce like they did last season, I expect the Wranglers to be in the playoffs again this season.


Chicago
Chicago Black Sox (AL)
tomq
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Season 10: 3rd Place (89-73)
Season 11 Prediction: 3rd Place

The Skinny:
I thought this team would be better last season, but what I can say - it's the A.L. North where 89 wins is only good enough for 3rd place and causes you to miss the playoffs by 1 game. The offense has some big-time talent in Derek Taylor, Rob Becker and Julio Valenzuela. Will Hull (Rule 5 waiver claim) and Russell Smith (promoted from AAA) will provide even more pop to the lineup. The Black Sox have a very strong bullpen also as they've clearly focused on improving that aspect of the pitching staff over the last 2 seasons. Jack Abercrombie had an outstanding rookie campaign (12-5, 2.84) and Roscoe Nation and Dick Orosco are back as well. The big question mark for the Black Sox is their starting pitching. Joel Baldwin is steady and Mikey Cook should have a better season, but the depth isn't there which is why I'm predicting a 3rd place finish.




Season 10: 4th Place (82-80)
Season 11 Prediction: 4th Place

The Skinny:
The good news in Scranton is that the Apollos finished over .500 and that was an 11-game improvement over the previous season. The bad news is I still see the Apollos finishing in 4th place. The Apollos bring in 2B Shea O'Connor from Richmond and also traded for Jesus Abreu, but neither player will make a major impact although Abreu can pitch until his arm falls off. Geronimo Franco, a Rule 5 draftee with gaudy minor league numbers, will get a chance in the lineup also, but they're still a little short on talent compared with their division rivals. Dan King and Pat Masao form an excellent offensive tandem and they're both young so the future looks pretty good offensively. The pitching staff needs a major upgrade though. Tyler Taylor is the best of the bunch and he's only 24, but I look at his health and wonder if he'll make it to 25! Marshall Whitney is another young pitcher (promoted from AA) who looks like he'll get a shot, but he's still a few years away from reaching his potential and the jump from AA ball to the majors may be tough for him.

Monday, December 8, 2008

Will Jesus Be The Savior?


AP (Scranton, PA) - In need of a starting pitcher, the Apollos trade for Jesus...Abreu, that is. The Scranton Apollos traded a trio of players including Cookie Mateo, Dick Strong and Douglas Young in exchange for Jesus Abreu who comes to Scranton from the Minnesota Mighty Men.
"I had to trade Dick Strong and a guy named Cookie because I believe the guy I'm acquiring, Jesus, will be the savior of my franchise," said Apollos owner, tecwrg. The reference to Cookie Mateo and Dick Strong was due to the fact that the pair have developed quite the fan following in Scranton as they progressed through the Apollos minor league system.
Dubbed "Cookies & Cream" by teammates, Mateo and Strong were inseparable around Scranton, and although disappointed that they're leaving the Apollos organization, were happy to note that they'll still be playing together in Minnesota.
As for the Mighty Men, they have to be happy with the players they got in return for Abreu. Mateo and Strong are both major league ready although neither has even played AAA ball yet. It'll be interesting to see whether they start the season with a stint in AAA or head straight to the majors. Douglas Young, the 3rd player going to Minnesota, also has major league potential although he's a couple years away. Young projects to be a long reliever/spot starter.

Former First-Rounders Swap Teams



AP (Miami) - Four former first round draft picks will swap uniforms in a recent deal between the Florida Lockdown and the Oklahoma City Power Failure. Oklahoma City acquired Howard Christiansen (Season 5, Round 1, Pick 30), James Bradshaw (Season 2, Round 1, Pick 32) and Max Aldred (Season 8, Round 1, Pick 32) while Florida gets Grady MacFarlane (Season 7, Round 1, Pick 7) and Vic Sanchez (Int' Free Agent) in return.
MacFarlane is coming off back-to-back seasons in which he produced over 90 RBI and scored over 90 runs in each campaign. He also jacked 27 home runs in each of his first 2 seasons in the majors. Sanchez won 11 games in High A ball for the Power Failure last season.
In Bradshaw, Oklahoma City gets a consistent starting pitcher who chews up a lot of innings. Bradshaw's started 33 games in each of the last 2 seasons while winning 13 and 14 games respectively. Christiansen had a monster year at Double A for Florida last season as he scored 151 runs and drove in 119. He will presumably start the season in AAA, but may get the call up to the bigs as the season progresses. Alred, won 11 games in Low A ball last season, but control is a major issue (1.71 WHIP) for the lefty from Anderson, California.