Friday, March 25, 2011

Misusing Numbers in New and Interesting Ways

I recently had a couple of days in which I had WAY too much free time on my hands, so I decided to compile some stats on which teams have scored and allowed the most runs over the course of Mantle's first 19 seasons.  Don't think it's very meaningful other than as a useless piece of trivia, but it's kind of fun to review.

First, over 19 seasons, a total of 518,946 runs have been scored at the Major Level.  Going by current franchise names, the leaders are:

Most Runs Scored (Seasons 1 through 19):
  1. Detroit Tigers - 18,106 runs
  2. Chicago Black Sox - 17,685
  3. Albuquerque Isotopes - 17,614
  4. Portland Poltergeists - 17,589
  5. Florida Lockdown - 17,534
Fewest Runs Scored (Seasons 1 through 19):
  1. Oklahoma City Power Failure - 14,637 runs
  2. San Diego Seagulls - 14,725
  3. Oakland Polish Hammers - 14,893
  4. Jacksonville Seminoles - 15,007
  5. Valcouver Fighting Skeletons - 15,076
Fewest Runs Allowed (Seasons 1 through 19):
  1. Detroit Tigers - 14,479 runs
  2. Florida Lockdown - 14,685
  3. Minnesota Mighty Men - 14,907
  4. New York Apples - 14,953
  5. Kansas City Blues - 15,142
Most Runs Allowed (Seasons 1 through 19):
  1. Charlotte Moose Hunters - 18,673 runs
  2. Jackson Bootleggers - 18,604
  3. San Diego Seagulls - 18,584
  4. Albuquerque Isotopes - 18,278
  5. Boston Minutemen - 17,725
So after I had all these numbers, it was simple enough to then calculate the Expected Win Percentage for each franchise in Mantle over the first 19 seasons to see who the biggest over-achievers (actual wins above expected wins) and who the biggest under-achievers (actual wins below expected wins) were.  The results were somewhat surprising:

Over-Achievers (Actual Wins above Expected Wins):
  1. Jackson Bootleggers - +86 wins
  2. Boston Minutemen - +52 wins
  3. Baltimore Blast - +41 wins
  4. Sacramento Boo A's - +35 wins
  5. Pittsburgh Pandas - +26 wins
Under-Achievers (Actual Wins below Expected Wins):
  1. Detroit Tigers - (-67 wins)
  2. Portland Poltergeists - (-53 wins)
  3. Florida Lockdown - (-52 wins)
  4. Monterrey Sugar Kings - (-33 wins)
  5. Chicago Black Sox - (-28 wins)
It was this last category that I found most surprising.  The Detroit franchise, which through 19 seasons has (a) the most wins in all of Mantle, (b) scored the most runs in all of Mantle, and (c) allowed the fewest runs in all of Mantle, is (statistically speaking) the biggest under-achieving team in the history of Mantle.

In fact, of the five winningest teams in Mantle history, four of them are on the under-achiever list.  The only "outlier" from this group would be the Scranton Apollos, who have the third most wins in Mantle history (1,719) and come in at +9 wins above expectations.  That must say something about their stellar ownership.

Monday, March 21, 2011

Season 20 Hall of Fame Voting Results

On jonas's prompting, I sent a ticket to WIS to get the vote totals of the Hall of Fame voting for this season.  Here are the results:
  1. Bart Kirby - 14
  2. Brent Meche - 13
  3. Domingo Pizzaro - 12
  4. J.D. Acosta - 10
  5. Julio Lee - 10
  6. Stan Hunt - 9
  7. David Santayana - 7
  8. Andy Scott - 7
  9. Albert Lecuona - 5
  10. Tom Daly - 4
  11. Bey Meacham - 4
  12. Miguel Vazquez - 3
  13. Jay Carmona - 3
  14. Lawrence Rhodes - 2
  15. Horace Gulan - 2
  16. Steve Burks - 1
  17. Philip Ray - 1
  18. Julio Valenzuela - 1
  19. Cookie Holt - 1
  20. Sal Stark - 1
  21. Jim Tatum - 1
  22. Stephen Ball - 1