Numbers can be dangerous when used incorrectly. Which is probably what I'm doing now. But just for kicks this afternoon, I looked at all the playoff teams in the AL and NL and the games they played against each other this season. I then applied the Pythagorean Win formula for each series to "predict" a winner of each series, all the way through to the ALCS and NLCS. Didn't do the World Series because my two "winners" didn't play each other this season.
Yeah, I know. The ten games each team played agaisnt their opponent is a small sample size. So there's probably very little merit to the following. But here goes:
AL Play-In, Richmond vs. Scranton
Head to head, Scranton outscored Richmond in their season series by a narrow margin, 57-53, to give the Apollos an expected winning percentage of .536.
Prediction: Scranton in 5.
AL Play-In, Norfolk vs. Portland
Head to head, Norfolk trounced Portland in their season series by a very convincing 75-44, to give the Fatheaded Statheads an expected winning percentage of .744.
Prediction: Norfolk in 4.
NL Play-In, Texas vs. Minnesota
This was interesting. Take away their 10 game season sweep against Louisville, and the Long Horns were a .500 team during the regular season. But they apparently matched up well against the Mighty Men, outscoring them in their season series by 54-46 for an expected winning percentage of .579.
Prediction: Texas in 5.
NL Play-In, Albuquerque vs. Salt Lake City
As division rivals, they probably knew each other pretty well. But in their 10 game season series, the Isotopes outscored the Snowflakes by a 66-58 margin, giving them an expected winning percentage of .564.
Prediction: Albuquerque in 5.
ALDS, Detroit vs. Scranton
Two longtime AL North rivals face off in the second round, but it's hardly a close series. Detroit trounced Scranton in the regular season by outscoring them 60-32 for an expected winning percentage of .779.
Prediction: Detroit in 4
ALDS, Baltimore vs. Norfolk
Probably the most anticipated matchup of the entire post season, as the 120 win Blast take on their division rivals and winners of 109 games, Norfolk. As one might expect, the Blast are not going to be slowed down, as they outscored the Fatheaded Statheads by 46-36 during the regular season for an expected winning percentage of .620.
Prediction: Baltimore in 5
NLDS, New York vs. Texas
The Long Horns run of good luck finally runs out. The Apples outscored them 53-40 in their head-to-head matchups during the regular season for an expected winning percentage of .637.
Prediction: New York in 5
NLDS, Rochester vs. Albuquerque
Not even close. Rochester ran all over Albuquerque 61-30 in the regular season for an expected winning percentage of .805.
Prediction: Rochester in 4
ALCS: Detroit vs. Baltimore
The 1 seed versus the 2 seed. Baltimore outplayed and outscored the Tigers by a 46-39 margin for an expected winning percentage of .582.
Prediction: Baltimore in 6
NLCS: New York vs. Rochester
Another matchup of 1 seed versus 2 seed, but this time the 2 seed has the upper hand. Outscoring New York by a margin of 44-37 during the regular season for an expected winning percentage of .586, the Rochy Road Rochstars bring home the hardware.
Prediction: Rochester in 6
So there you have it. A World Series between the Baltimore Blast and the Rochester Rochy Road Rochstars.
Remember, you heard it here first.
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